LED屏幕上游封裝行業迎來改善，大家會發現一連串的事件背后迎來LED屏幕上游(you)封(feng)裝的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)格(ge)(ge)局(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改(gai)善，15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)巨頭如飛利(li)浦、GE、歐(ou)司(si)朗(lang)宣布退出(chu)(chu)(chu)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)市(shi)場，16年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中期(qi)(qi)LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)及封(feng)裝廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)就開(kai)始(shi)調(diao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，說明(ming)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)前(qian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)廝殺的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)很厲害，16年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)成為行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)拐(guai)點。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)前(qian)，LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)紛(fen)紛(fen)擴(kuo)(kuo)大業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務，造成產(chan)能過(guo)(guo)(guo)剩明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)，價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)持續(xu)(xu)快速下(xia)(xia)滑，使(shi)(shi)得LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)生(sheng)劇變。眾多(duo)經營(ying)(ying)不(bu)(bu)善的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)小(xiao)(xiao)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)由(you)于(yu)(yu)(yu)技術落后等(deng)原因，紛(fen)紛(fen)減產(chan)或者轉型，大量LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)退出(chu)(chu)(chu)市(shi)場。不(bu)(bu)過(guo)(guo)(guo)，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來，隨(sui)著(zhu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)穩定增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)關系逐(zhu)步改(gai)善，近(jin)期(qi)(qi)更是(shi)出(chu)(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)產(chan)品(pin)密(mi)集(ji)(ji)漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)事件。業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內(nei)(nei)人士表示(shi)，不(bu)(bu)僅是(shi)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)在(zai)(zai)漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，led屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)等(deng)也在(zai)(zai)漲(zhang)(zhang)。這(zhe)樣過(guo)(guo)(guo)山(shan)車(che)(che)式的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)對產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有怎樣的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)？需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)(duan)：小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距、Micro－LED、IR、車(che)(che)燈市(shi)場興(xing)起(qi)，屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)工程迎發(fa)展(zhan)良機(ji)在(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)LED行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)結構中，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)通(tong)(tong)用(yong)屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)47．6％、景觀屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)13．5％、背光(guang)(guang)應(ying)用(yong)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)12．1％、顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)屏(ping)(ping)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)12．8％、汽(qi)車(che)(che)屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)1.4％。參(can)照近(jin)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速，假設(she)17年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)通(tong)(tong)用(yong)屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速15％、景觀屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速7％、小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速70％，led顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)屏(ping)(ping)（除小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距）增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速4％、車(che)(che)用(yong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速6％，則國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)LED產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長率約(yue)10．44％，考慮(lv)(lv)到(dao)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)LED產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)滑的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)，需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)數(shu)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速應(ying)該高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)產(chan)值增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速。伴隨(sui)著(zhu)小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、Micro－LED、IR、車(che)(che)燈市(shi)場興(xing)起(qi)以(yi)及財政擴(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)(xia)屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)工程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)良好發(fa)展(zhan)機(ji)遇，LED的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速正(zheng)加(jia)快，17年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)便需(xu)(xu)要新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)約(yue)26臺(tai)(tai)MOCVD設(she)備(bei)(bei)。補(bu)(bu)庫(ku)存需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)確定，消(xiao)費升(sheng)級利(li)好龍(long)頭廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)LED行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)自2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)進入(ru)庫(ku)存消(xiao)化(hua)階段，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)申萬(wan)LED板塊數(shu)據(ju)，自15Q3，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)庫(ku)存周(zhou)(zhou)轉天數(shu)由(you)117．94天降至16Q3的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)102．92天，處(chu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)2009Q3以(yi)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最低位，未來新(xin)(xin)一輪的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)補(bu)(bu)庫(ku)存需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)將(jiang)(jiang)推升(sheng)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)度。此(ci)(ci)外(wai)(wai)，我們認為“良幣(bi)驅(qu)逐(zhu)劣幣(bi)”正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)(duan)發(fa)生(sheng)。當LED燈泡價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)降到(dao)消(xiao)費者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“舒適(shi)區”，受益于(yu)(yu)(yu)消(xiao)費升(sheng)級，部分(fen)中小(xiao)(xiao)廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)差異來增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang)購(gou)買意愿(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能力(li)下(xia)(xia)降，薄(bo)利(li)多(duo)銷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)盈(ying)利(li)模式受到(dao)挑戰，薄(bo)利(li)少銷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)象會(hui)從(cong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)(duan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)部分(fen)中小(xiao)(xiao)廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)競爭壓力(li)，加(jia)速行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)洗(xi)牌(pai)，利(li)好龍(long)頭廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)。供(gong)(gong)給(gei)端(duan)(duan)：價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)戰擠出(chu)(chu)(chu)效應(ying)明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)競爭格(ge)(ge)局(ju)改(gai)善，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)統計數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)大陸(lu)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)廠(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)持續(xu)(xu)投產(chan)使(shi)(shi)得15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)供(gong)(gong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)于(yu)(yu)(yu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)例高(gao)(gao)達(da)22％，自15Q1至16年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)Q1，主(zhu)流LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)跌幅超過(guo)(guo)(guo)30％，封(feng)裝產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)也普遍呈現(xian)(xian)超過(guo)(guo)(guo)20％的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)跌幅。根(gen)(gen)據(ju)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)輕工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)網數(shu)據(ju)，2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)三(san)季度全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)累計虧(kui)損(sun)面(mian)為16．66％，相比(bi)(bi)之(zhi)下(xia)(xia)，內(nei)(nei)資(zi)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)經營(ying)(ying)狀況優于(yu)(yu)(yu)外(wai)(wai)商(shang)、港澳(ao)臺(tai)(tai)投資(zi)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。在(zai)(zai)此(ci)(ci)優勝劣汰的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)競爭環境下(xia)(xia)，繼三(san)星在(zai)(zai)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)退出(chu)(chu)(chu)韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)之(zhi)外(wai)(wai)所有市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)LED屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務之(zhi)后，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)(nei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)知名(ming)大廠(chang)(chang)飛利(li)浦、歐(ou)司(si)朗(lang)、GE也陸(lu)續(xu)(xu)退出(chu)(chu)(chu)了中國(guo)(guo)(guo)市(shi)場，為國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)LED產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)了更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場空間(jian)，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)競爭格(ge)(ge)局(ju)改(gai)善。LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)由(you)RGB向白(bai)光(guang)(guang)蔓延，結構型供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)失(shi)衡顯(xian)(xian)現(xian)(xian)，繼2016 Q3四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)缺貨漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)、臺(tai)(tai)廠(chang)(chang)紛(fen)紛(fen)加(jia)碼四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)LED產(chan)能之(zhi)后，17年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1月國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)龍(long)頭三(san)安光(guang)(guang)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)布調(diao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)函，上調(diao)部分(fen)白(bai)光(guang)(guang)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)8％，LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)由(you)RGB向白(bai)光(guang)(guang)蔓延。這(zhe)一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)反映出(chu)(chu)(chu)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)結構型失(shi)衡，即顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)應(ying)用(yong)與led屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)應(ying)用(yong)爭搶GaN藍(lan)綠芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)產(chan)能。另(ling)一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)也反映出(chu)(chu)(chu)芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)下(xia)(xia)游(you)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)旺盛，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)調(diao)研反饋，近(jin)期(qi)(qi)白(bai)光(guang)(guang)LED芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)、封(feng)裝、屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)訂單情況良好，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)上行(xing)(xing)(xing)，企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)盈(ying)利(li)能力(li)逐(zhu)步修復。臺(tai)(tai)廠(chang)(chang)聚(ju)焦(jiao)四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)市(shi)場，GaNLED產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中心(xin)向大陸(lu)轉移加(jia)速，由(you)于(yu)(yu)(yu)小(xiao)(xiao)間(jian)距led屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、IR感測應(ying)用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)興(xing)起(qi)，臺(tai)(tai)系四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)LED廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)積極擴(kuo)(kuo)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)能：晶電(dian)(dian)從(cong)16Q2執(zhi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)擴(kuo)(kuo)產(chan)計劃、華上光(guang)(guang)電(dian)(dian)16年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)產(chan)能集(ji)(ji)中在(zai)(zai)四(si)元(yuan)(yuan)。與此(ci)(ci)同時(shi)，晶電(dian)(dian)、Cree在(zai)(zai)16年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)縮減GaN產(chan)能，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)大廠(chang)(chang)則在(zai)(zai)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)落地GaN產(chan)線投入(ru)，考慮(lv)(lv)設(she)備(bei)(bei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)購(gou)買、調(diao)試周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)本(ben)土(tu)(tu)芯(xin)(xin)(xin)片(pian)(pian)大廠(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)MOCVD新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)投入(ru)約(yue)135臺(tai)(tai)，考慮(lv)(lv)晶電(dian)(dian)約(yue)125臺(tai)(tai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設(she)備(bei)(bei)退出(chu)(chu)(chu)，17年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)球新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)設(she)備(bei)(bei)有限，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長低于(yu)(yu)(yu)11％。一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)由(you)于(yu)(yu)(yu)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)(quan)彩(cai)led屏(ping)(ping)幕(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)中需(xu)(xu)要2倍的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)藍(lan)綠產(chan)能與紅黃產(chan)能匹配，另(ling)一方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，由(you)于(yu)(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)大廠(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)退出(chu)(chu)(chu)為下(xia)(xia)游(you)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)了更大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)替代空間(jian)，本(ben)土(tu)(tu)廠(chang)(chang)商(shang)承接GaNLED產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中心(xin)轉移的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進度加(jia)快。